Valley Headlines

Polls, polls and more polls

PPIC. How are CA’s competitive congressional districts changing?
Synopsis: Researchers Eric McGhee and Jennifer Paluch focus on 10 districts – including 13 and 9 in Stockton -- writing that that the “political ground in these districts may have shifted” since the first post-COVID election of 2022. Looking at new registration data, they note: A) There are more Democrats than Republicans in virtually all of the “competitive” districts. B) Democrat voters consistently underperform in all of the districts. C) In CA 13, there are fewer Democrats than in the past and more independent voters while in CA9, there are fewer registered voters despite a higher population of eligible voters. D) In CA 13 Democrats lead slightly in new registration, while new Independents double the two parties combined. “By far the largest source of partisan change has come from party switchers, in particular voters switching from no party preference to Republican” before the primary. Since the primary, the reverse has been true as Republicans switched to Democrat and independent. Conclusion: Things are shifting, and the change in voter identity may not be over yet.

USC. CA House poll: Democrats hold slim leads in closest races.
Synopsis: USC, Long Beach State and Cal Poly Pomona pollsters found incumbent Republicans are worried. Ken Calvert is in a dead heat with Will Rollins in CA41, Michelle Steel trails Derek Tran by 1.5% in CA 45, and Mike Garcia is tied with George Whitesides. The two “battleground” districts with the clearest leads are CA 13, where Adam Gray is 2% ahead of John Duarte, and CA22 where Rudy Salas is 4% ahead of David Valadao. Turnout will be key; USC says turnout can be predicted by “enthusiasm” and 62% of Democrats say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting compared to 45% of Republicans.

Politico. Dems hold slight edge in CA swing House districts.
Synopsis: Reporter Dustin Gardner talks to the USC pollster, who says “if the Democrats control the House in 2024, it’s probably because four or five of these districts flip. It truly is so close that everything on the margins can make a difference.” He notes that purple-district Republicans are all polling better than Donald Trump and Steve Garvey, which he said could hurt Democrats. He also noted that his polls have a 6% margin of error, and every race is within that margin.

Some scary warehouse stories

Fresno Bee. Fresno’s newest haunted house is the size of a Walmart; inside the Scare Factory.
Synopsis: The 66,000 square foot former Walmart then warehouse on West Shaw includes creepy clowns, serial killers, ghosts, escape rooms and escapees from the psych ward in six “themed environments.” It’s been set up by Jason Englebright and his pals, who started with a few scary exhibits at his house then expanded. Englebright says of the 56 folks who have been through pre-opening, “40 of them screamed for their lives.” It runs Sept. 27-Nov. 3 from Wednesday to Sunday, opening at 6 pm. Figure spending 90 minutes. Under-12s not allowed.

GV Wire. Warehouse bill would be job killer in Fresno; leaders call for Newsom’s veto.
Synopsis: Writes Edward Smith: “Fresno leaders say a bill awaiting Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature threatens future employment by imposing excessive building standards.” AB 98 would create standards on warehouses construction and location. Already, communities like Fowler and in the Inland Empire have grown tired of the big boxes because they provide fewer jobs than promised, their trucks can ruin roads, and they often take farmland out of production. Still, it’s a tough issue. Miguel Arias supports AB 98, but Annalisa Perea does not. Newsom’s office says it has gotten 700 messages on the issue.

Who, exactly, caved in?

Politico. Are Sacramento’s most conservative Democrats too liberal for the Central Valley?
Synopsis: Reporters Lara Korte and Dustin Gardner say Republicans are trying to paint Adam Gray and Rudy Salas as men who cave into their party’s wishes. Republicans are “spending big to defend Valadao and Duarte, flooding the airwaves and lining the highways with ads” saying the two will cave. The reporters write: “That’s news to the Democrats who worked with them in Sacramento.” Former Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez said Gray and Salas could be frustrating as they stood in the way of some of her progressive plans. Gray, in particular, suffered sanctions from his own party after standing up against onerous water grab formulated by the water board, bringing 1,500 Valley citizens (including a marching band) to the Capitol steps. While Gonzalez often disagreed with Gray, she said he always showed up “for important workers’ rights issues.” Now, she says, “Who’d thought I’d be spending this election being a cheerleader for Adam Gray and Rudy Salas.”
MAD Take: John Duarte absolutely knows Adam Gray stands up for water rights, since he came to Gray’s Capitol rally that Gray organized. If you want to find someone who clearly caves in to his party’s desires, talk to John.

Lifeline for Merced firehouses

Merced Focus. Closure of Merced County fire stations postponed for now.
Synopsis: In May, county supervisors voted to close Station 85 in Merced and Station 96, the only station in Livingston, on Oct. 1. With 6 days to spare, the board delayed those closures until Dec. 31. The problem is staffing; to partner with Cal Fire, the county must have two round-the-clock firefighters on hand, but it can only afford one. Supes say if the public-safety sales tax, Measure R, passes in November, the closures won’t be necessary. The county has also applied for a $10 million federal grant that could be used for staffing. The city of Livingston has sued to keep its firehouse open. Priya Lakireddy noted the county’s plan “depends on ifs and hopes. … And ifs and hopes don’t save homes from fire.”

Westside bridge was costly

Modesto Bee. Stanislaus County bridge project exceeds budget by $5.2 million; new span is open.
Synopsis: The 723-foot bridge over the San Joaquin River on Crows Landing Road costs roughly 20% more than originally planned, due in large part to water rushing down the San Joaquin in 2023. The construction site was inundated with damage to the new trestle, access roads and a construction platform. Other delays were caused when endangered Swainson’s hawks were found nesting nearby.

Not-so-special deliveries

Sacramento Bee. Did an Amazon truck join Sacramento sideshow? Video viral after deadly weekend.
Synopsis: An Amazon Prime truck was caught on video joining the show and the video went viral with 400,000 views so far. Apparently, the contractor who employed the driver was among those seeing the video, and the driver was fired. Sac had several sideshows this weekend, with two fatalities.

CBS13. Big rig spills large load of almonds on Hwy 99 in San Joaquin County.
Synopsis: The big truck was hauling trailers through Acampo when it swerved to avoid a crash, then created one. It spilled 40,000 pounds of nuts onto the shoulder near the Peltier exit.

DA: Prop 36 fights rural crime

Ag Alert. Commentary: To tackle rural crime, we should pass Proposition 36.
Synopsis: Fresno DA Lisa Smittcamp writes about crimes we seldom see on websites or in headlines – theft of crops from fields, copper from pumps, equipment from barnyards. She offers as an example the 200 beehives stolen last year in Fresno County. Other thieves stole $15 billion in food cargo, sometimes including the trucks it was carried in. A single pistachio heist was valued at $170,000. Smittcamp says she needs Prop 36 to keep bad people behind bars longer.

Turlock Journal. Rise in CA’s crime rates points to shortcomings of Prop 47.
Synopsis: Juan Alanis insists that crime is rising in CA, and blames it on Prop 47. He uses statistics compiled over 10 years, all of them relating to various forms of theft (retail, burglary, etc.). Like Smittcamp, Alanis is writing to say that only by passing Prop 36 can we resolve these crime sprees.
MAD Take: Yes, property crimes are up in CA in the 10 years since the passage of Prop 47. But violent crime -- murder, rape and assault -- are all down. So, if Prop 47 is responsible for an uptick in property crime, is it also responsible for the downward trend in violent crime? If you’re asking me to choose …

What were they doing in there?

Merced Sun Star. One dead, one hospitalized after found in fuel tank.
Synopsis: Two women, identities withheld, were found trapped inside a fuel tank around 3:15 pm Monday on Oak Street in Delhi. There was still fuel in the tank. One is in the hospital, the other the morgue. Authorities found 3 malnourished calves on the property; one had to be euthanized.

County passes budget, OKs deal

Merced Focus. Merced County signs agreement with largest union, passes $1.4 billion budget.
Synopsis: Story doesn’t really say what workers got, but supervisors increased health insurance premiums by 4.8%. That’s on top of 12% premium increases last year. Since then, the only employees to get a raise have been in law enforcement. But at least a strike has been avoided.

Off Broadway and way, way off

Modesto Bee. Modesto native cast in ‘truly a dream role’ in ‘Les Miserables’ North American tour.
Synopsis: Modesto’s Lindsay Pearce will play Fantine, according to Playbill. She opens Oct. 1 in Louisville with dates in Bloomington, East Lansing, Syracuse, Chicago and Tulsa. She most recently appeared as Elphaba in Wicked on Broadway.

Modesto Bee. ‘Weird Al’ Yankovic nationwide tour includes Modesto stop.
Synopsis: Weird Al will bring his “Bigger and Weirder 2025 Tour” to the Fruityard on Aug. 23, 2025. His opener will be Puddles Pity Party. Expect a video wall, lots of costume changes and an 8-piece band.